Showing posts with label retirement. Show all posts
Showing posts with label retirement. Show all posts

Friday, May 11, 2012

How to Make a (Measly) $1 Million Retirement Nest Egg Last

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota
Occupy Wall Street has its 1 percent answer, of course. A consulting firm that studies the wealthy has a broader definition, based on millionaire status. Many financial planners have a cautionary third answer — that appearances, and account balances, can be deceiving, and you may not be as rich as you think you are.

The Occupy Wall Street forces focus more on income than on wealth. But if its 1 percent label were applied to assets, the dividing line between the 1 percent and everyone else would be $8.4 million.

Based on its research, the consulting firm, Spectrem Group, said about 8.6 million American households had a net worth of at least $1 million last year, not including their equity in a home — just over 7 percent of the 117 million American households.

George H. Walper Jr., the president of Spectrem, in Lake Forest, Ill., estimated that most of those in the low end of the millionaire class did not have most of their assets in formal retirement funds. “A lot of it is in other places,” he said, even if it is intended for retirement. Many people in that group are already retired, and their average age is 62.

People planning decades of retirement based on $1 million need to recognize that that amount is not anywhere near what it was a century ago, and that they will never live like millionaires, said Larry Luxenberg, a fee-only financial planner at Lexington Avenue Capital Management in New City, N.Y.

So how do you make $1 million last?

Take, for example, a hypothetical couple about to retire who have assets of just over $1 million. To help them, assume they have no children who are financially dependent on them. Also assume that they will be entitled to maximum Social Security benefits, which are just over $30,000 a year each (this year) for people who start collecting at age 66. (Delaying the start of benefits for up to four years increases the amount to be received but might, for some, require earlier withdrawals of retirement funds that would be subject to income tax.)

On the minus side, assume that this couple has no other pension plans that will provide retirement income — although many people who entered the workplace 40 years ago have significant defined-benefit pension plans from corporate or government employers. Mr. Luxenberg said there was a one-in-four chance that one member of a couple who had reached 65 would live into his or her 90s. So that person will have to plan for 30 years of income, he said. A rule of thumb, he said, was to draw 4 to 6 percent of retirement assets, adjusted for inflation, each year. For a hypothetical millionaire, that would be $40,000 to $60,000 a year, plus Social Security benefits.

“Folks with $1 million in a well-balanced portfolio can be comfortable,” he said, but “it’s not a lavish lifestyle.” He added: “The idea of a millionaire being someone who is really rich, that goes back to the Roaring ’20s and the Great Depression.”

Inflation has eroded the value of $1 million considerably, and as Mr. Luxenberg noted, “Three percent inflation over 30 years means you need 2.4 dollars for every dollar that you’d need now.” Withdrawing 4 percent of a nest egg each year used to be a standard formula but is no longer considered a hard-and-fast rule, said Greg Daugherty, executive editor of Consumer Reports and a retirement columnist for the Consumer Reports Money Adviser newsletter.

Four percent might be too much for someone who retired early, or whose money was largely in fixed-income assets.

One strategy to prevent running out of money in old age is to buy an annuity, which gives the annuity seller a specified amount in return for a predetermined monthly payment for life.

Matthew Grove, a vice president of the New York Life Insurance Company and head of its annuity department, said of the 4 percent rule, “there’s no guarantee that it will work,” even if it feels safe.

An annuity “guarantees that you can’t outlive your money, but guarantees that you can spend more over the life of your retirement,” he said.

A $1 million New York Life annuity bought by a 66-year-old man, with payments starting immediately, known as a single-premium immediate annuity, would pay $65,666 a year — far more than a 4 percent withdrawal from a $1 million pot.

The downside is that someone who died at a relatively young age might have had unspent money to leave to heirs if it had not been put into an annuity. There are also annuities that provide death benefits and payments for spouses, although the monthly payments are lower.

Mr. Grove said someone with $1 million might consider using only some of it to buy an annuity. The goal, he said, is to have an annuity and Social Security benefits cover retirees’ most important expenses.

Mr. Luxenberg said annuity buyers were paying for guarantees in the annuities’ cost. But he explained that “after the period we’ve come through, people are craving certainty and guarantees, and they’re willing to pay for guarantees.” For those people, he said, an annuity “could work.”

For those who will keep their assets and figure out how much to withdraw annually, Mr. Daugherty said, “Try to figure out what your expenses are going to be in retirement” before retiring. “Make a budget, even if you never have before,” he added. “One advantage of doing that is that it might show the need to work a few more years, if that is feasible, to allow the desired annual withdrawals in retirement.”

“The value of the 4 percent rule these days, for one thing, is it keeps people from doing anything too crazy, like 8 or 10 percent,” Mr. Daugherty said.

For some people who have been diligent savers, the 4 percent benchmark might encourage them to dip into assets, rather than trying to live only on the income their assets yield. “Some people are terrified of any spending,” Mr. Daugherty said, but they should not deny themselves “the legitimate pleasures of retirement, enjoying things like travel.”

But for those millionaires on paper, while such legitimate pleasures will be theirs, the bottom line, as Mr. Walper of Spectrem put it, “They’re not buying a Duesenberg.”

Alain Delaquérière contributed research.



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Tuesday, May 1, 2012

The Puzzle of retirement investing - economic viewpoint

Dave can count on a traditional pension, paying $4,000 a month for the rest of his life. Ron, on the other hand, will receive its benefits to a lump sum that it must manage itself. Ron a lot of choices, but all have consequences. For example, he could put the money in a conservative bond portfolio and by drawing on the principal and the interest of the expenses that he might spend $4,000 per month. If Ron is the case, however, it can if expected to run out of money by the age of 85, including the actuarial tables say there's a 30 per cent chance of achieving. Or he could take down only $3,000 per month. It would be as much to live each month, but his money should last until it reaches 100.

That is likely to be happier now? Dave or Ron?

If this question seems obvious, welcome to the club. Almost everyone seems to prefer the certainty of the pension of Dave Ron complex options.

"" But that's the problem: even if people like Dave that they tend to love them, old-fashioned pension "defined benefit" are a breed endangered. On the other hand, people like Ron - with defined contribution as 401 (k) plans-can transform uncertainty into a guaranteed monthly income stream that reflects the earnings of a traditional pension plan. They may do so by purchasing an annuity - but when offered the chance, almost everyone refuses.

Economists call it the "annuity puzzle." Using standard assumptions, economists have found that buyers of annuities are insured more annual revenue for the rest of their lives, compared to people manage their portfolios. One of the reasons is that those who buy annuities and die at the start end up subsidizing those who die later.

Then, why not more than people buy annuities with their 401 $?

Here is part of the answer: some people think that buying an annuity is a bad deal for their heirs. But that is not true. First of all, a retired may decide to cancel part of a retirement nest egg for bequest, either immediately or at a later date. Second, if a retired to manage his own money, the heirs may face the following possibilities: either they get financially "lucky" and the parent died young, leaving a legacy, or they are financially "unfortunate," which means that the parent lives a long life, and the heirs take the load support. If you have aging parents, you may ask you how much you would be willing to pay to ensure that you never have to find a way to explain to your spouse, or anyone you can be reached, that your mother is moving in.

There are other explanations of the unpopularity of the pension, but I think that the two are particularly important. The first is just buying one can be scary and complicated. Workers are accustomed to having their employers to restrict their series of choices to a few manageable, either in their 401 plans or in their choice of providers of health and life insurance. However, very few 401 (k) offers a specific annuity option that was blessed by the Department of human resources of the company. Shopping for an annuity, with hundreds of thousands of dollars at stake can be difficult, even for an economist.

The second problem is more psychological. Rather visualize an annuity as providing insurance where one lives above 85 or 90, most of the people seem to consider buying an annuity as a bet, which was to live a certain number of years of profitability. But, as the example of Dave and Ron shows, is the decision to self-manage your wealth of retirement is risky.

The more complex and unpredictable risk predicting how long you will live. Even if there is no progress of the medicine in the years to come, according to the Social Security Administration, a man with respect now 65 has almost 20% chance of living to 90, and a woman of that age has almost a third chance. This means that a husband who withdrew when his wife is 65 should include in its plans a chance of a third party that his wife will live for 25 years. (An annuity "joint and survivor" who pays until both members of a couple of die is the only way I know that for those who are not rich with confidence this problem.)

An annuity can also help people with another important decision: when to retire. It is difficult to get an idea of how much money is enough to finance a lifestyle in retirement. But if a lump is translated into a monthly income, it is much easier to determine if you have enough set aside to afford to stop working. If you decide, for example, that you can get about 70% of pre-retirement income, you can simply continue to work until you have accumulated as the level of benefits.

IN the absence of annuities, there is reason to be concerned that many workers is the difficulty with this decision. Over the past 60 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average age at which Americans retire has trended downward by more than five years of 66.9 to 61.6. Of course, there is nothing wrong with choosing to withdraw a little earlier, but during the same period, life expectancy increased by four years and will likely continue to climb, which means that pensioners have to finance at least another nine years of retirement. Those who manage their own retirement assets can only hope that they have saved enough.

Rents some of these issues can make it easier to resolve, but few Americans actually choose to buy. If the cause is a perhaps rational fear of the viability of insurance companies, or false ideas about whether pensions increase rather that decrease the risk, the market has not understood how to sell these products successfully. Is there a role for Government? Listen next time for some thoughts on this issue.

Richard h. Thaler is a Professor of Economics and science of behaviour at the Booth School of Business, at the University of Chicago. He is also a school counsellor Allianz Global Investors Center for behavioural Finance, part of Allianz, which sells financial products, including annuities. The company has not consulted for this column.



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